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Maui Rental Market Outlook for 2027

Posted by benjamen.harper@gmail.com on November 7, 2024
Maui
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Maui’s long-term rental market heading into 2027 is softer at the small end and still tight for family-size homes. Studio and one-bedroom rents have come down a lot from their post-fire peak. Two-bedrooms and up remain well above where they were before August 2023. Two things will shape the next year: the end of federal fire housing aid in early 2027, and Bill 9’s slow push of vacation rental condos into the long-term pool.

Own a Maui condo? See where your building stands on our Maui Bill 9 building tracker, with deadlines and rezoning status for 103 properties.

Here’s what the data shows as of October 2026, and what it means if you’re renting, buying to rent, or deciding between nightly and long-term.

Where rents are now

The most useful recent numbers come from UHERO, the University of Hawaii’s economic research group, which has been surveying fire-affected households since early 2025. Its August 2026 report, as covered by Civil Beat, found that studio and one-bedroom rents had fallen from roughly $2,000 a month to about $1,200. Two-bedroom rents were still “well above” $2,000, against a pre-fire median of about $1,600.

That split makes sense. Right after the fire, thousands of displaced households, insurers and FEMA were all competing for whatever was available, and rents spiked across the board. As people found more stable housing, or left the island, demand for small units eased first. Families still need two- and three-bedroom homes, and there aren’t many of them.

Listing-site averages for individual towns like Kihei swing a lot month to month on a small number of listings, so treat them as a rough guide rather than a trend line.

The fire housing wind-down

FEMA’s direct housing for Lahaina fire survivors was due to end in February 2026. In January, Maui Now reported 946 households still relying on it while the state and county asked for another year. Federal assistance now runs to February 2027, according to Civil Beat. In the meantime FEMA has been raising what residents pay, toward 50% of HUD’s fair market rent for Maui County, with an increase starting September 2026.

The state’s Ka La’i Ola modular community in Lahaina, with 450 homes for up to 1,500 people, runs separately and is set to continue through August 2029.

UHERO’s survey shows the shift already happening. About two-thirds of fire-affected households were in permanent housing by mid-2026, up from about half in early 2025, and the share receiving full rental assistance dropped from 37% to 15%. Most households are still earning less than before the fires. So as aid ends, the households still in temporary housing will be looking for rentals with less money to spend. That keeps pressure on the cheaper end of the market even as overall rents ease.

Bill 9 and future supply

Bill 9, signed in December 2025, ends vacation rental use in apartment-zoned condos on Jan. 1, 2029 in West Maui and Jan. 1, 2031 in the rest of the county. The county expects more than 6,000 units to return to residential use. In a 2025 analysis, UHERO estimated that the phase-out would add about 6,000 units to the long-term stock, roughly a 13% increase and about ten years of construction at the recent pace.

That supply isn’t here yet, and not all of it will become rentals. Some owners will sell to people who live in the units. Some buildings may be rezoned into the new H-3 and H-4 hotel districts, though the Planning Commission has supported only a few so far. And much of the affected stock is older beachfront condos with high HOA dues, which may not pencil as long-term rentals at local rents. The bigger effect is likely to show up in 2028 and 2029, starting in West Maui.

Vacation rental vs. long-term economics

For years the math favored nightly rentals wherever they were legal. That’s less true now. UHERO reported real visitor spending on Maui in early 2026 was still nearly 20% below pre-fire levels, and Bill 9 puts a hard end date on nightly use in apartment-zoned buildings.

If you’re buying with rental income in mind, the questions to ask are:

  • Is nightly rental legally allowed here long term? Hotel- and resort-zoned condos are outside Bill 9. Apartment-zoned ones aren’t.
  • Does it work as a long-term rental? Run the numbers at today’s long-term rents, not vacation rates. Include HOA dues, insurance and property tax.
  • Who rents it? Based on the UHERO numbers above, small units face more competition and lower rents right now. Two- and three-bedroom homes are where demand is tightest.

On the buying side, condos are moving. In September 2026, Maui condo sales were up 56.5% from a year earlier, with a median price of $660,000, according to the Realtors Association of Maui. The single-family median fell 11% to $1.15 million.

What to expect in 2027

Nobody publishes a reliable rent forecast for Maui, so read this as a reasonable expectation rather than a prediction. Small units probably stay softer than they were in 2024. Family-size rentals probably stay tight, with some extra demand around February 2027 as federal aid ends. Bill 9 supply mostly arrives after 2027. If you’re a renter, the best deals are likely in studios and one-bedrooms. If you’re an investor, it’s a good time to underwrite on long-term rents only and treat any nightly income as a bonus, where it’s allowed at all.

FAQ

Are Maui rents going down? For studios and one-bedrooms, yes, compared with the post-fire peak. Larger units are still well above pre-fire levels.

When does Bill 9 add rentals to the market? The deadlines are Jan. 1, 2029 for West Maui and Jan. 1, 2031 for the rest of the county. Some owners are converting or selling earlier.

Is buying a Maui condo to rent out still worth it? It can be, if the numbers work as a long-term rental. Don’t count on nightly income from an apartment-zoned unit past the deadlines.

What happens when FEMA housing ends? Federal assistance is scheduled to end in February 2027. Households still in that housing will need to find other options, which adds demand for affordable rentals.

Questions about buying or selling in Hawaii? Call or text 808-866-6593, or start here →

Sources

General information as of October 2026, not financial, legal or tax advice. Rents vary widely by unit and neighborhood; check current listings and get local guidance before signing a lease or buying a rental property.